Brazil: 2025 potato harvest with historic losses and a market shift

After a 2024 with solid margins, oversupply and a sharp drop in prices led to widespread losses. However, the market has shown surprising resilience in recent weeks, indicating that a recovery is possible.

The main challenge for the 2025 potato harvest.

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The year began with a bleak outlook. Favorable weather conditions led to high productivity and, consequently, a surplus of potatoes in the main markets. This oversupply caused prices to plummet to unsustainable levels.

Regions like Vargem Grande do Sul (SP), a leading potato-growing area, saw average prices for producers reach around R$ 30.00 per 25 kg sack, a price that didn’t cover production costs and resulted in an estimated loss of approximately R$ 1 billion in the local economy and surrounding areas. To give an idea of ​​the magnitude of this setback, the same product was selling for between R$ 140.00 and R$ 150.00 per sack in 2024. The survival tactic of leaving potatoes in the ground longer, waiting for better selling conditions, has become common.

The market’s turning point: Why are potato prices rising?

Fortunately, the second half of October brought a significant change for the 2025 potato harvest. The market reacted with substantial increases, driven by the end of the São Paulo harvest and lower supply due to rain.

Data from Cepea/Hortifruti Brasil indicates price increases ranging from 9.7% to 14.5% in the main wholesale markets (São Paulo and Belo Horizonte). Ceasa Campinas recorded an even more significant increase, with the Agata potato rising by 45.5% in just one week.

This recovery highlights the Cerrado Mineiro region’s growing dependence on domestic supply during this period. Reduced supply pressure from the Southeast allows prices to return to a fairer level for producers who still have stockpiles or are currently harvesting.

Costps, logistics and a sustainable future.

Despite rising prices, profit margins for the 2025 potato harvest remain tight due to logistical costs. Diesel, an essential input for transportation, saw a slight increase of 0.32% in October, further pressuring operations.

Innovation as a cost-relief tool

In terms of innovation, initiatives such as the creation of the first public biofactory in the Pionero Norte (PR) region—a result of collaboration between UENP and IDR-Paraná—point toward a more sustainable and economically viable future. The production of free or low-cost bio-inputs for family farmers can be a crucial factor in reducing dependence on expensive fertilizers and chemicals, thus easing the pressure on future harvests.

ABBIN also highlights the potato as a key player in the growing trend of plant-based foods, opening up new and promising market avenues for this tuber in the coming years.

Lessons from the 2025 potato harvest

The 2025 potato harvest tested resilience. While initial losses were severe, the recent recovery demonstrates the dynamism and adaptability of Brazilian agribusiness.

It is essential that producers and the industry remain attentive to cost trends (diesel, fertilizers), rural credit policies (especially after the restriction of the special credit line for Rio Grande do Sul), and, above all, supply and demand management strategies to ensure sustainability and profitability in the coming seasons. The potato remains a staple food in Brazilian cuisine and industry.