Europe (NEPG): European potato producers “surprised” by the price increase in February, up to €0.30/kg

The NEPG association, which brings together potato producers   from Belgium, the Netherlands, France and Germany, has expressed its surprise in a press release at the increase in prices seen in February 2025 and wonders whether the expected increase in surface area, as a result of the growing demand for this tuber, may affect the profitability of farmers engaged in this activity.

The aforementioned group assures that potato production in 2024 in these four countries has risen to 24.7 million tonnes, an increase of 6.9% compared to the 2023 harvest.

They also stress that, despite the increase in supply, the market remains dynamic. Prices for producers rose from €12.50/100 kg in October-November 2024 to €30.00/100 at the beginning of February. The rapid increase since the beginning of January is quite surprising, NEPG says in a press release.

Stock assessments in the coming months, as well as the timing and conditions of spring planting, will be of utmost importance for price trends this season, producers warn.

2025: Increase in potato acreage with risk of low  profitability ?

With a buoyant market and few other alternatives, plus falling sugar prices that may drive down what people pay for beets, it seems highly likely that potato farmers will plant more potatoes next spring than last season.

Farmers, according to NEPG, must seriously take into account the annual trend of lower yields (see graph attached to these lines) which means higher production costs per hectare. But a larger surface area, the European group stresses, means greater risks for the sector, which will see good overall production, but only if sowing is done early and the vegetative development of the plant is ideal.

Stable contract prices and more expensive production costs

While  seed prices  appear to be on the rise less than last spring (Innovator varieties are the exception), they have actually increased in value, according to NEPG, by 10 to 15% compared to 2023 prices. Production costs have risen somewhat, and the risks are becoming more significant for farmers.

In the NEPG area, contracts are largely stable throughout the storage season. Future changes and developments will depend on the free purchase prices for industrial potatoes.

Uncertain global markets and challenges for export

The potato markets in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and France, they say, will be influenced by more risks and costs in line with the decisions that could be taken by the US president, the expansion of fried food exports from China and India and stricter environmental decisions in the EU.

The export of frozen potato products from the industry in these  four  states could suffer from future erratic decisions taken by the new US president. At the same time, the European potato sector should be aware of the growing alternative players in the export of fried foods such as China, India, Egypt, Argentina and Turkey.

During this time, the influences of climate change, stricter regulations on phytosanitary products and availability, more soil problems (nematodes, wireworms, edible nut...) and looming diseases such as Stolbur, as well as more problems and legislation linked to nitrogen seepage into groundwater, make potato production technically and economically more difficult and financially more risky. The need for efficient tools is a major problem for having good quality throughout the harvest, says NEPG in the aforementioned press release.

“There are many uncertainties regarding the free purchase prices for the coming season and the sales of processed products. With the very likely increase in the  potato surface area  and uncertain export markets for EU 04, growers must be aware that they are taking risks by expanding their potato hectare” concludes the association that brings together potato producers from Belgium, the Netherlands, France and Germany.