Francia: Potato, soon to be queen of the courses

During the technical day organized by the Nord-Pas de Calais Potato Technical Committee on December 19, Guillaume Lidon, general director of the National Union of Potato Producers , drew up a provisional assessment of the 2024 campaign and outlined the market outlook for 2025.

Rainfall: a better enemy

“ If we take the context in the field, the lack of plants was on everyone’s lips. In the end, there was no problem. That said, four quarantine diseases were detected on French soil, linked to the use of Dutch plants. As a reminder, quarantine can go as far as a 15-year black fallow on the plot,” explains Guillaume Lidon.

The high rainfall, for its part, has been both a good and a bad thing. It has made “ uprooting difficult” and led to “ late planting”, but it has also allowed “ rather optimal development of the tuber” .

However, some batches were harvested in very poor condition, leading to complicated cooling. Mildew also benefited from the weather situation.

+ 7.3% surface area

That being said, with 7.3% more surface area at the national level (i.e. around 10,000 hectares more), the potato has never been so popular, particularly among farmers who did not grow it, to the detriment of other spring crops, primarily beets and cereals.

In total, France should reach the record of 8 million consumer potatoes produced. “ The yield is in line with the ten-year average with, all outlets combined, an average of 45 t/ha. Which is not exceptional but correct.”

If we put these results into perspective with the other producing countries in Europe, i.e. the countries of the NEPG zone (North-West European Potato Producers Group) , it is France which has seen the greatest increase in yield tonnage with an increase of one and a half tonnes. In the NEPG zone, the increase in areas is 8.6% compared to the five-year average.

+17% export in September

On the trade side, for the moment, the 2024-2025 season looks very similar to the 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 seasons, that is to say a campaign that started slowly but is very dynamic. “ Trade is mainly driven by exports rather than the domestic market ,” Guillaume Lidon says. He cites the +17% exports in August and September as proof.

“ In 2023-2024, the free market had reached peaks, but on very limited volumes. For this season, we are starting with higher quotations but at this stage (as of December 19, editor’s note), it seems less dynamic.” For the UNPT, the contractual market is solid and the free market will strengthen later.

“ Moreover, given the loss of calibers this year, manufacturers are prepared to pay more for certain calibers!”

+ 71% consumption of processed products

For 2025, according to a study by Ceresco (agri-food and agriculture consultancy), UNPT and GIPT (Interprofessional Group for the Promotion of Potatoes), potato consumption is expected to increase by 17% by 2030 with an overall annual effective rate (APR) of 6% per year, all on a global scale.

“What is worth noting is that in OECD countries, this APR would only be 1.1% and that with regard to the consumption of processed potatoes ( mainly French fries, editor’s note ), the increase in consumption would be 71% by 2030!”

As for France, production could increase by +30% by 2030, driven by a 38% increase in surface area. But be careful, the UNPT remains cautious, “ all these balances can vary according to geopolitical developments!”

The cart before the horse

Another point of vigilance is the increase in production even before the outlets are created. “ What producers must understand is that they cannot get ahead of demand.”

In 2021, the UNPT noted an industrial capacity in France of 1.25 million tonnes. This potential, with the installation of multiple factories, could increase to 3 million by 2027-2028, “ 2030 if we are more reasonable” , all driven by a potential increase in surface area from 40,000 to 45,000 hectares.

The UNPT is worried about 2025 since 10,000 hectares have already been planted this year, while not all the factories have been built.

However, the UNPT is worried about 2025 since 10,000 ha have already been planted this year. “ What we fear is that the same thing will happen this year. But the factories have not been built! So we have to be vigilant.” The UNPT is not, however, going so far as to give a timetable or advise producers on a period… And is counting on the possible opening of an Ecofrost factory in Péronne (80) to absorb the surplus production.

As for production costs, these, all outlets combined, should increase by around 3% in 2025 compared to 2024, reaching the 8,000 euro mark per hectare. “ Around 50% of the costs are divided between plants and mechanization, which is not seen in any other sector.” In other words, “ reductions in sales prices would absolutely not be justified this year.”

Finally, on the agreement with Mercosur, the UNPT acknowledges, “ it is a question of removing customs duties on the export of processed products, so for the sector it is a good thing. On the other hand, no one only makes potatoes and for French agriculture as a whole, this agreement is not good news. The UNPT remains in solidarity with the unions.”