Polonia: Potato Prices, Is It Worth Growing Potatoes in 2025?

We asked Dr. Wojciech Nowacki from the Polish Potato Association about the prospects for potato cultivation that can be presented for 2025. According to the expert, in order to discuss this topic, it is necessary to take into account what happened in 2024. As he states:

- In Poland, the potato cultivation area, according to the Central Statistical Office, amounted to almost 195 thousand ha in 2024, yields of 300 dt/ha and harvests of 5.85 million tons, compared to 5.60 million tons in the previous year. The potato cultivation area reported in recent years by the Central Statistical Office and the Agricultural Property Agency (ARiMR), in the opinion of SPZ and IERiGŻ PIB, seems to be underestimated due to the failure to disclose minor crops intended for own needs and sale to neighbors. According to SPZ and IERiGŻ PIB estimates, the potato harvest in Poland in 2024 amounted to approx. 6.35 million tons with a cultivation area of ​​205 thousand ha and an estimated yield of 310 dt/ha.

• The increase in potato cultivation area recorded in 2024 was caused primarily by the high price for tubers produced in 2023, which, given the poor profitability of other crops, became all the more attractive in the eyes of agricultural producers. However, the clear problems noted at the beginning of 2024 were the fact of very high prices for seed potatoes combined with their poor availability. Ultimately, seed potatoes of unknown origin and questionable quality of tubers were often planted. This, among other things, translated into the problems noted in the 2024 season. The specific weather conditions of the past year also became an obstacle. 

A large share of waste crops

As Dr. Nowacki says:

- The commercial quality of potato tubers from the 2024 harvest, due to unfavourable weather conditions (heat, deficit or temporary excess of rainfall) during the growing season, is not the best and the share of the commercial yield in the total yield is estimated at approx. 75%. A significant share of the total harvest was waste crop.

As he adds: -Many varieties produced tubers infected with smallpox or common scab (drought during the tuber setting period). We should also expect a significant share of deformed or cracked tubers (large changes in soil moisture during tuber growth) and quite frequent greening of tubers (washing out of ridges during heavy rainfall). Also, the very early (June) occurrence of potato blight on many plantations will also cause increased storage losses in the current season.

Therefore, a large share of the tubers must be quickly utilized, and some of them are already being used for grazing.

 What will be the potato prices at the turn of 2024/2025?

Potato prices in 2024 maintain some stability, although they are lower than those in 2023.

- The price level in autumn 2024 in marketplace turnover was on average about 10% lower compared to the same period of the previous year, but compared to 2022, prices were still significantly higher (by about 20%). In wholesale turnover, the price decline is deeper, and their level (about PLN 141/dt) in December 2024 was about 18% lower compared to the same period of the previous year - assesses Dr. Nowacki.

According to him, in general, throughout the entire 2024/25 season, the average level of market prices may amount to about PLN 2.10/kg compared to PLN 2.33/kg in the previous season, and wholesale prices to about PLN 156/dt compared to PLN 191/dt in the previous season. Retail prices for edible potatoes used in retail chains and individual stores vary greatly and currently range from PLN 1.50/kg to even PLN 4.00/kg.

 What are the prospects for 2025?

 We also asked how SPZ thinks the market will behave in the next season? Forecasts still indicate some stability, but the persistently poor profitability of other agricultural products (from 2025, sugar beet will also join the group of unprofitable crops) may cause a further increase in the area of ​​potato cultivation in Poland.

However, the cultivation of this species is beginning to be treated as a specialist crop. It is also difficult to obtain high commercial yields without an irrigation system. The potato is not only sensitive to drought, but also to any dynamic changes in soil moisture.

- According to SPZ forecasts, in 2025 the area of ​​potato cultivation may increase to 210 thousand ha, yields in average weather conditions are forecasted at approx. 320 dt/ha, which would give a harvest of 6.7 million tonnes, i.e. significantly higher than in the last two years, but still significantly lower than in 2020-2021 - says Dr. Nowacki.

In his opinion, in the 2024/25 season, the market turnover in potatoes may amount to approx. 3.71 million tons and will be approx. 4.0% higher than in the previous season. Processing for French fries and crisps is increasing. Potatoes are also used more for the production of starch and dried potatoes and for spirit. In total, the industrial use of potatoes may be approx. 6% higher than in the previous season. Sales of potatoes for direct consumption may increase from 1.58 to approx. 1.60 million tons. It is expected that in the 2024/25 season, approx. 61% of resources (including imports) will be distributed through market channels (purchase, wholesale, marketplace and other forms), taking into account losses and losses.

It is therefore difficult to assess how the potato market will behave in the next season. In the case of this species, the market of large European players should also be monitored. In Western European countries, which have a decisive influence on the European potato market (Germany, France, the Netherlands and Belgium), production increased by approx. 0.8 million tonnes (almost 2.7%).