Brazil: The winter potato harvest is progressing and contributing to lower inflation

The progress of the winter harvest in the main producing regions of southeastern Brazil has had a direct and positive impact on the country’s official inflation rates. According to data published by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the preliminary official inflation figure for July (IPCA-15) registered a deflation of 0.66% in the Food and Beverages group. Potatoes were among the products most affected by this slowdown, with a 10.03% decrease in retail sales during the period.

This shift reflects the change in the national supply flow following a challenging first half of the year. During the first six months, the wholesale and retail markets experienced significant supply fluctuations due to adverse weather conditions and periods of low production in some regions. However, the consolidation of the winter harvest restored delivery volumes and increased the supply of tubers to the country’s main distribution centers.

Vargem Grande do Sul (SP) alcanza su punto máximo de cosecha y aumenta la oferta.

One of the main drivers of the increased potato availability is the municipality of Vargem Grande do Sul, in the state of São Paulo, considered one of Brazil’s largest potato-producing centers. With approximately 25% to 30% of its area already harvested, the region is experiencing its peak agricultural season.

The increased pace of agricultural activity in the agricultural zones of São Paulo, along with the regular shipment of goods from southern Minas Gerais, the Triângulo Mineiro region, Cristalina (GO) and Paraná, ensured a constant flow of supplies to the Central Supply Centers (Ceasas) in the southeast region.

Soil conditions: The crops harvested during this period show good health and adequate commercial quality, ensuring liquidity in deliveries.

 Market prices : Regional studies indicate that a 25 kg sack of superior quality specialty potatoes is sold at a price ranging between R$ 40.00 and R$ 50.00 at the producer level.

Operational equilibrium: In properties that have achieved good productivity per hectare, current values ​​seek to cover operating costs such as inputs, irrigation and labor, presenting a more balanced scenario in relation to the challenges that arise in the 2025 harvest.

The challenges of passing costs on to retailers.

Despite the relief it provides to Brazilian household budgets, the crop yield highlights the characteristic volatility of potato farming and the contrasts in value distribution along the supply chain.